Background 

There is increasing evidence that violations of economic, social and cultural rights are causes, consequences or even predictors of violence, social unrest and conflict. In recent years, the United Nations has expressed its commitment to use available tools to identify early warning signals that can trigger unrest and conflict. However, no unified methodology has yet been developed to aid in the early identification of tensions that could allow more specific and targeted interventions—especially around economic, social and cultural rights.

Summary 

In the present report, submitted pursuant to General Assembly resolution 48/141, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights considers the links between violations of economic, social and cultural rights—and violence, social unrest and conflict. The report suggests that an analysis of the enjoyment of the said rights could inform early warning efforts for effective preventive action.

Key findings

• Violations of rights relating to food and health, water crises, displacement and forced evictions are often the root cause of violence, social unrest and conflict. 
• Analyzing economic, social and cultural rights is therefore key to any national or international early warning effort. 
• A methodological framework for early warning analysis should be developed. It should include human rights indicators based on this framework—emphasizing economic, social and cultural rights—to help predict an escalation of human rights violations, violence, social unrest and conflict.

Learn more about the issue of early warning.

Methodology

This report is the result of independent research and extensive consultations. UN Human Rights organized two expert meetings on human rights and early warning, held in Geneva and Bangkok in 2016. These meetings were seminal in identifying key risk factors for instability linked to human rights. 

• Summary of the Expert Group Meeting on Social Unrest, Conflict and Early Warning (Geneva, July 2015) 
• Opening speech at the Geneva meeting by the United Nations High Commissioner. 
• Summary of Early warning of violence and conflict: land and human rights in South East Asia (Bangkok, November 2015)